slug
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Out in search of my mind...
Posts: 1433
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posted September 07, 2005 08:04 PM
 Edited By: slug on 7 Sep 2005 21:05
Ted has not once to my knowledge answered a single direct question i have asked here.
so best of luck getting a REAL answer from him.
i figured out what Bush is now though:
man·tra Audio pronunciation of mantra Pronunciation Key (mntr, mn-)
n.
1. Hinduism. A sacred verbal formula repeated in prayer, meditation, or incantation, such as an invocation of a god, a magic spell, or a syllable or portion of scripture containing mystical potentialities.
2. A commonly repeated word or phrase: "Today's edutainment software comes shrinkwrapped in the magic mantra: 'makes learning fun.'" (Clifford Stoll).
      
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vinniezx12r
Parking Attendant
Posts: 12
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posted September 07, 2005 08:09 PM
quote:
trenace,
I understand completely about the shortage of refineries. But that is a poor excuse to raise prices by 1/3 and just take the profits. I am all in favor of building more refineries. If they were to take that extra money and use it to expand capacities, I would not say a word.
vinnie, I have been bitching about the oil companies for the last 25 years and yes I have been hit pretty hard by the expense of housing. Who hasn't. But the reason I am saying something now is because the oil prices jumping almost 70 cents in one day is directly related to the hurricane.
I am a registered republican, but I will only vote for the best man. I admit I liked Clinton and voted for him. That dude was dead smart and liked blow jobs, qualities to be admired. Bush is another story, the guy still hasn't bought into evolution or global warming. I wouldn't be surprised if he still thought the world was flat. Let's face it all politicians are scum bags. So just because I don't like Bush doesn't mean I am liberal or a Democrat.
Ted, I understand the frustration with oil prices, but producers typically don't have a lot of say in prices. We sign long term contracts with purchasers that are tied to specific crude indexes. These indexes are driven totally by wallstreet traders.
If it's any consolation, I would expect that these higher prices will cause A LOT of demand destruction, and gas will eventually head back towards $2/gal. But, things are pretty tight supply / demand wise, and any further upsets (strikes in Nigeria, Mideast tensions, Venzeulan games, etc) could bring them right back up. There are a lot of new drivers in China these days - I've seen it first hand. Hopefully these higher prices will spur some ingenuity (hell, might have to put together a plant to manufacture crude from iron oxide, marble, and water  - sorry Trenance!), and we'll get our act together to create more efficient vehicles and alternate energy sources.
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Tainui
Parking Attendant
Posts: 9
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posted September 07, 2005 08:12 PM
Edited By: Tainui on 7 Sep 2005 21:13
The rest of the world is still paying $1.00+ more than us for gas. Get used to it and force people to look at more efficient options. I'm not going to be sad to see SUV's go the way of the land yachts from the 70's. We've got better technology now and as an example, cars like the Lexus Hybrid SUV and Toyota Camry Hybrid can do the job better, cheaper.
Vinnie - maybe you have some insight on this. Are you hearing about these high profits for the oil companies contributing to upgrades and development of better / more efficient refineries? Or is that another example of a finger in the dyke?
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vinniezx12r
Parking Attendant
Posts: 12
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posted September 08, 2005 04:48 AM
Well, we've got a little OT here! Trenance, I'll try to find the actual article because I'm interested also. I do know the "biomarker" debate is a strong one, and also know the geological evidence is quite strong. Let me see if I can find more info.
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/lookback/2005/05may.cfm
The point really isn't that important to supply anyway, because even if we assume that all petroleum is generated abiotically, there is still the fact that mother earth ain't keeping up with depletion.
Tainui, There are a lot of economics and politics involved in refineries, but I'll just say that margins have finally risen enough to take some risks on upgrades of sour (high sulphur) crude refineries. These upgrades are in the hundreds of millions to billions of $'s, so companies don't jump into them without some pretty good evidence of decent economics. This is an area where the "dreaded tax breaks" might play a role. Basically the government might offer a refiner a tax break on any new expansions if their margins don't exceed the minimum for an economic expansion. This takes out some of the risk.
I'm no refining expert, but I'll try to post what I've seen happening when I get a bit more time. BTW, my company saw our crude prices drop from $44/bbl to about $20 between Oct, 2004 and Dec 2004 - all due to local sour crude refinery capacity. It was a few scary months there, as all our costs have pretty much doubled due to the oil boom. Things have rebounded since then, but we could see more of the same in the future.
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TedG
Moderator
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posted September 08, 2005 07:51 AM
quote:
Ted, you still have not explained how, if prices do not rise, the result will not be anything but either extremely long lines or rationing. Those are however the only two remaining possibilities when demand (at a given price) exceeds supply (at that price) and stock becomes exhausted.
I hope that our leaders are not also economically that unaware, or as is more likely, aware but choosing to succumb to popular pressure from those not aware, thus resulting in massive shortages. Far better to have individuals decide what driving isn't worth doing at the price, than having the price low but only 2/3 as much available as people want at that price.
So you honestly believe that just by raising prices the supply/demand ratio will be cured? So patch over the problem instead of fixing it properly? Glad you aren't working on my motorcycle.
Think about this: Raising prices on fuel makes everything we buy cost more.That my dear friend is inflation at it's worst. Remember business work on margins, so if a business is charged more for anything they will not only pass that on, but add their percentage. It devalues the dollar against all other currency, causes hardships on hundreds of thousands of people, stunts economic growth, hits the budgets of our troops overseas and their families at home. Think they have trouble with not being able to afford equipment now? There is a lot more going on than just lines at the gas pumps. At least the lines would light a fire under the inane politicians to get our refinery capacity up sooner than than it would by merely raising prices. So in a nutshell raising the price of fuel is the first step to runaway inflation.
____________
Ted
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tainui
Parking Attendant
Posts: 9
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posted September 08, 2005 08:01 AM
Edited By: tainui on 8 Sep 2005 09:05
Ted -- We already passed the increase on to all our customers. $0.25/gallon increase for freight costs across the board and many customers cooperated by giving an allowance on current fixed price delivered contracts. Its not like there is some evil man behind the curtain deciding how markets react - its economics bub. supply/demand. People who can't afford to put gas in the HUmmer will end up buying the Honda.
Hopefully the entire supply of products from China will decrease as a result of the fuel increase and other markets becoming more competitive. Then we won't be subsidizing this entire fuel shortage by sending all our dollars to China to compete against us for fuel.
Its only $0.02 but its mine.
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 08:07 AM
quote:
quote:
Ted, you still have not explained how, if prices do not rise, the result will not be anything but either extremely long lines or rationing. Those are however the only two remaining possibilities when demand (at a given price) exceeds supply (at that price) and stock becomes exhausted.
I hope that our leaders are not also economically that unaware, or as is more likely, aware but choosing to succumb to popular pressure from those not aware, thus resulting in massive shortages. Far better to have individuals decide what driving isn't worth doing at the price, than having the price low but only 2/3 as much available as people want at that price.
So you honestly believe that just by raising prices the supply/demand ratio will be cured? So patch over the problem instead of fixing it properly? Glad you aren't working on my motorcycle.
Think about this: Raising prices on fuel makes everything we buy cost more.That my dear friend is inflation at it's worst. Remember business work on margins, so if a business is charged more for anything they will not only pass that on, but add their percentage. It devalues the dollar against all other currency, causes hardships on hundreds of thousands of people, stunts economic growth, hits the budgets of our troops overseas and their families at home. Think they have trouble with not being able to afford equipment now? There is a lot more going on than just lines at the gas pumps. At least the lines would light a fire under the inane politicians to get our refinery capacity up sooner than than it would by merely raising prices. So in a nutshell raising the price of fuel is the first step to runaway inflation.
Ted, you evade the points anyone raises like nobody's business.
The fact that increased gas costs increase other costs has NOTHING to do with the fact that if the free market is not allowed to operate during shortage, then supplies run out and it becomes a matter of who waits in line the longest; or a matter of the government deciding who gets what.
You refuse to say which of the two you prefer to the price going to the free market value, which will be higher in times of scarcity.
Instead you just argue that since higher gas prices will pass on to consumers, therefore prices should not be allowed to rise. But you refuse to even acknowledge the resulting consequences of THAT, let alone give your recommendation of what is better -- all you are doing is criticizing while offering no solution and evading every single time any points out the SEVERE problems of doing differently than what you attack.
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TedG
Moderator
Posts: 8222
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posted September 08, 2005 08:17 AM
Also I don't buy into the idea that just because other countries pay more for gas, we should. That is bullshit. Just like the 186mph limit. This ain't Germany or France. The only thing I like about other countries is the fact that MotoGP is popular. And alas we are stuck with NASCAR.
____________
Ted
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trenace
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posted September 08, 2005 08:17 AM
Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 09:21
quote:
Well, we've got a little OT here! Trenance, I'll try to find the actual article because I'm interested also. I do know the "biomarker" debate is a strong one, and also know the geological evidence is quite strong. Let me see if I can find more info.
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/lookback/2005/05may.cfm
That's it?
quote:
The editor of the Science newsletter cited Smith's study as one of the most significant science stories of the year. It pointed out that Smith's discovery of hydrocarbons deposited in recent sediments provided an important quantitative study by a chemist that overturned the general geologic opinion that oil was generated in the subsurface.
At least one major oil company spent many years trying to create a useful hypothesis of petroleum generation that could start with flushing sediment hydrocarbons into traps.
The measurements of hydrocarbons in recent sediments was correct, but ... further work demonstrated that these hydrocarbons were biomass and detritus of once-living organisms, and were not petroleum-like.
We now understand that petroleum hydrocarbons are the result of the transformation of organic matter under subsurface conditions of elevated pressure and temperature, often retaining fragments of the original organic molecules. The preserved fragments, called biomarkers, allow petroleum accumulations to be traced to a particular subsurface layer and to specific organisms abundant in that source layer.
We've come a long way in 50 years.
I found the PNAS paper much more thorough, evidenced, documented, and persuasive actually, by probably a factor of 10,000 or more! In no way do I find the above refuting or even weakening in the slightest the PNAS article on abiotic generation of petroleum from components known to exist in the earth's mantle, in proportions exactly identical to that found.
Even if one grants the assertions made above, it does not... and the assertions are not substantianted. Not knowing the basis behind them, for example I have no way of knowing that the conclusion is not in error because archaebacterial metabolism of petroleum of abiotic origin introduced whatever evidence led them to assume the petroleum to be of biological origin.
Certainly doesn't refute the PNAS article.
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TedG
Moderator
Posts: 8222
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posted September 08, 2005 08:27 AM
quote:
[Ted, you evade the points anyone raises like nobody's business.
The fact that increased gas costs increase other costs has NOTHING to do with the fact that if the free market is not allowed to operate during shortage, then supplies run out and it becomes a matter of who waits in line the longest; or a matter of the government deciding who gets what.
You refuse to say which of the two you prefer to the price going to the free market value, which will be higher in times of scarcity.
Instead you just argue that since higher gas prices will pass on to consumers, therefore prices should not be allowed to rise. But you refuse to even acknowledge the resulting consequences of THAT, let alone give your recommendation of what is better -- all you are doing is criticizing while offering no solution and evading every single time any points out the SEVERE problems of doing differently than what you attack.
I avoid nothing, raising prices it not the answer. And you dont like my answer, fine, I don't like yours. I can tell you dont take the time to read because of your moveon.org comment. We can go on arguing forever and not convince each other of anything. Who am I to say anythng, your guy is in office. Go on fall in line with the Bush minions, don't question anything, just let him do the same thing to this country as he has done to Iraq. It's all good. Onward christian soldiers.
____________
Ted
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trenace
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posted September 08, 2005 08:33 AM
Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 09:45
You avoid nothing?
So what IS your answer?
There being only 2 gallons of gas per unit of time for every 3 that people want to consume, the 2 gallons go to those that wait the longest rather than choose to pay the price?
There being only 2 gallons of gas per unit time for every 3 that people want to consume, the 2 gallons go those the government says get it?
Which one? You avoid nothing!
Or if you say it's something different than that, don't avoid it, tell us!
My God man it's one thing to avoid, to be a criticizer with no solution that avoids ever saying what the alternative should be, but to on top of that, to deny ever avoiding while so manifestly constantly doing so is just unbelievable!
And you're entirely wrong that I do not read your replies. Nowhere in them do you do anything other than what I've described your posts as.
All you have is destructive criticism with not one SINGLE constructive criticism, something that would work better. You are just out to smear and demonize those you don't like. That accomplishes nothing, but it's sure easier to do... so much easier to do than actually WORKING TO SOLVE PROBLEMS like the very people you're attacking, the ones that do supply you with your oil and gas, who are working to try to help the people in New Orleans, etc. Congratulations. You really are standing on a higher plane than they!
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TedG
Moderator
Posts: 8222
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posted September 08, 2005 08:36 AM
Edited By: TedG on 8 Sep 2005 09:38
Lighten up, and wait in line. 
____________
Ted
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lietoome
Needs a job
Posts: 2033
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posted September 08, 2005 08:39 AM
Holy, Crap. Anyone see O'Rielly last night?
Bush is ordering the troops to shoot and kill blacks.
Bush wanted the poor blacks in NO to drown...
What a Crock of Shit. The factor took the spin out of the one columnist that tried arguing those two ignorant statements.
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TedG
Moderator
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posted September 08, 2005 08:41 AM
I don't like Bush but these guys go too far. The press are far bigger idiots than Bush.
____________
Ted
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trenace
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Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 08:43 AM
I did not see it but unfortunately that sounds like just yet more of what I was talking about.
You know, so far as the classic liberal position, there are considerable merits to various parts of it. Few people would say we should give no government assistance to anyone. Few people would say that there should be no restrictions on the government's invading your personal life. Etc. It is not as if it should be impossible for a liberal or a liberal politician to have a SENSIBLE discussion and win people to their side (depending on what particular thing they're trying to argue) and win some votes.
But, so many of them have polarized into this absolute rabid hatefulness, which it sounds like happened on O'Reilly last night from your description.
How the hell do they think they are helping anyone with that shit, even themselves?
Are they ever going to win a national election with that shit?
I think not. People hate it.
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slug
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Out in search of my mind...
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posted September 08, 2005 08:49 AM
this is normal, ted never answers questions.
he still hasn't answered the one above that i posed 2 times now.
don't expect a real answer on your gas supply question, he won't answer it with anything except the same emotional rhetoric that he has already posted. ( "i don't like your answer" )
As an added note on a previous topic, apparently it was a seawall that failed. not the levee that everyone is peeved about
apparently also the seawall that failed was under NO plan for repairs or rebuilding, so no federal funding for levee repairs WOULD have helped in this situation.....no funding was removed, lost, detained, deferred, diverted, or pocketed that would have prevented this calamity. ergo, the flooding in NO was NOT bush's fault...he had NOTHING to do with it whatsoever.
sad, the irrational extreme left has lost their biggest blame-naming crusade
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TedG
Moderator
Posts: 8222
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posted September 08, 2005 08:53 AM
IMHO both political parties suck. The dems have no leadership skills (that I can see) The GOP has given into the religious right, and members of both parties follow the party line like sheep just to do the opposite of the other party.
____________
Ted
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trenace
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posted September 08, 2005 08:57 AM
Actually I think he finally he did say, or at least implied, that his answer is lines. Took about 4 or 5 iterations but finally there it was, albeit not concretely.
What a horrible solution. What a nightmare that was back in the 70s, waiting 10 hours or more in line and then the pump ran out... having 2 gallons gas in your car, 100 miles to go, a place you have JUST learned you HAVE to be, and NO way to get gas... I just hope our politicians will have the will to not bend to an uninformed public demanding a price cap and resulting in such horrendous lines because it's a disaster. Far more damage to the country than simply having to pay somewhat more per gallon.
Even those with limited money, if the price goes up 50% but they buy only 2/3 as much, are not out of pocket. Of, if they absolutely must drive the same distance and cannot carpool or anything, most even with very limited incomes would rather pay a buck a gallon more than wait in line 10 hours. The free market matching supply and demand is a far, far better thing than lines.
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blueford
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posted September 08, 2005 08:58 AM
quote:
The fact that increased gas costs increase other costs has NOTHING to do with the fact that if the free market is not allowed to operate during shortage, then supplies run out and it becomes a matter of who waits in line the longest; or a matter of the government deciding who gets what.
Free market!! That's a joke right?
It' called a CARTEL It costs $1.50 a barrel to extract and after the Saudi royal family adds overhead for some Rolls-Royce's it becomes $65. a barrel.
The CEO Lee Raymond of ExxonMobil was paid $38 million last year!
Fuck that's more than I make!
ExxonMobil earned $7.64 billion in the most recent quarter, record profits! They collude dudes!
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trenace
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posted September 08, 2005 08:59 AM
Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 11:20
Ted, you seem to have a huge beef with religious people, or at least religious Christians (Perhaps religious Hindus or whatever don't bother you.)
Exactly what has Bush done with regard to religion that has in any way impaired your life?
Other than not taxing me so as to take my dollars and give them to someone for Federal funding of embryonic stem cell research.
What is it that you've been harmed by this horrible "religious right" that you keep chanting as if it were a demon? Anything specific, or again no answer?
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 09:01 AM
Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 10:04
Blueford, so far as the price matter in question, it is a free market question (excluding the consideration of taxation) whether a gas station can charge what it chooses and the customer can either buy there or not buy there according to his own will, or whether the government forbids sale past a given price.
What OPEC does has nothing to do with the matter being discussed with regards to prices charged locally or by refineries for gasoline in response to shortage induced by reduction by Katrina of refining capacity. OPEC is a different question that if you like can be discussed separately, but in fact they are exposed to free market forces as well, as they experience substantial competition from non-OPEC companies. But that is not what is being talked about here and doesn't change the considerations of what to do regarding gas prices presently.
Actually I know that you know better than your above post.
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vinniezx12r
Parking Attendant
Posts: 12
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posted September 08, 2005 09:09 AM
quote:
quote:
Well, we've got a little OT here! Trenance, I'll try to find the actual article because I'm interested also. I do know the "biomarker" debate is a strong one, and also know the geological evidence is quite strong. Let me see if I can find more info.
http://www.aapg.org/explorer/lookback/2005/05may.cfm
That's it?
quote:
The editor of the Science newsletter cited Smith's study as one of the most significant science stories of the year. It pointed out that Smith's discovery of hydrocarbons deposited in recent sediments provided an important quantitative study by a chemist that overturned the general geologic opinion that oil was generated in the subsurface.
At least one major oil company spent many years trying to create a useful hypothesis of petroleum generation that could start with flushing sediment hydrocarbons into traps.
The measurements of hydrocarbons in recent sediments was correct, but ... further work demonstrated that these hydrocarbons were biomass and detritus of once-living organisms, and were not petroleum-like.
We now understand that petroleum hydrocarbons are the result of the transformation of organic matter under subsurface conditions of elevated pressure and temperature, often retaining fragments of the original organic molecules. The preserved fragments, called biomarkers, allow petroleum accumulations to be traced to a particular subsurface layer and to specific organisms abundant in that source layer.
We've come a long way in 50 years.
I found the PNAS paper much more thorough, evidenced, documented, and persuasive actually, by probably a factor of 10,000 or more! In no way do I find the above refuting or even weakening in the slightest the PNAS article on abiotic generation of petroleum from components known to exist in the earth's mantle, in proportions exactly identical to that found.
Even if one grants the assertions made above, it does not... and the assertions are not substantianted. Not knowing the basis behind them, for example I have no way of knowing that the conclusion is not in error because archaebacterial metabolism of petroleum of abiotic origin introduced whatever evidence led them to assume the petroleum to be of biological origin.
Certainly doesn't refute the PNAS article.
Try reading my response before jumping to conclusions. No, that was not "it". I said I would try to find the actual article.
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lietoome
Needs a job
Posts: 2033
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posted September 08, 2005 09:15 AM
Kanye West was the idiot that claimed bush don't care for the blacks. Do a search on dogpile.com under 'Kanye West quotes'. The nerve of motherfuckers making this a race issue. I hate to tell you folks, but the photos of the NO public school busses(about 40+ buses) parked online, dress-right-dress in 4 feet of water tells me that the federal Gov't is Far less responsible than anyone could ever imagine.
Louisianas' State FEMA told the Redcross convoy NOT to go to the Superdome because they wanted people to leave the big easy and Not levitate to the Superdome. ???
Governor says one thing, the Mayor says another....all the State and Local are incompetent and should share the blame. A HUGE amount of blame falls on the local population, too. When I say blame, why was the Superdome such a clusterfuck? Chaos? Why is it that all of the folks in the Superdome were PERFECTLY happy playing the Victim role during Katrina? Hell, shooting each other, getting drunk, watching people die. There were far many more folks playing bad guy and loser than there were being Heroes. Last time I checked, folks with common sense should have stood up, formed their own malitia and started helping themselves. Why were all the able-bodied men just laid up in the Dome? How about gather whatever you can and helping save some lives.....form up and find those people who were in such dire need of help.
Seems to me that the 'Community' as a whole was not a damn bit interested in helping save its own....."Its the Government, or the Feds that should be out their saving people, I'm good, I'm safe...I'll just sit her and wait til someone comes to the rescue.">>>seems to be the thought of a lot of the victims. I just don't understand why few were helping others besides themselves and immediate family. Its not a Fucking Race issue, Its a sorry fuck issue.
And, to top it off, anyone caught looting NON -necessities ( food, water, diapers, floatation devices, etc) should be shot.
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TedG
Moderator
Posts: 8222
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posted September 08, 2005 09:23 AM
quote:
Ted, you seem to have a huge beef with religious people, or at least religious Christians (Perhaps religious Hindus or whatever don't bother you.)
Exactly what has Bush done with regard to religion that has in any way impaired your life?
Other than not taxing me so as to take my dollars and give them to someone for Federal funding of stem cell research.
What is it that you've been harmed by this horrible "religious right" that you keep chanting as if it were a demon? Anything specific, or again no answer?
For starters "Intelligent Design" in schools. Oh..please. Faith based initiatives, supreme court judges basing their decisions on their religious beliefs, etc. I don't want to see religion infused with government. When it goes too far, bad thing happen. There are too many religions that have different beliefs, so basing any government policy on a religious belief will undoubtedly trample on the beliefs of some other group. this country was founded on the idea of the separation of Church and State and the freedom of religion. Stem Cell research is IMO a very necessary endeavor, there are many people out there that just may benefit, science is a good thing.
Also the Jerry Farwells and the Pat Robertsons are the sickest puppies on this planet.
Take a hard look at history, more people died in the name of religion than all the other reasons put together.
IMHO.
____________
Ted
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slug
Pro
Out in search of my mind...
Posts: 1433
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posted September 08, 2005 09:32 AM
and now, foamy the squirrel gets his say...
NWS.
http://www.illwillpress.com/kat.html
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