trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 04:03 PM
 Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 17:06
quote:
How much money are we talking here??????? I'm game for some 
BTW I was thinking a week or two back, the fair way to do this sort of thing would be for the person making the challenge to name the odds AND then be willing to take either side.
For example, it was almost criminal theft (shameful to say) for me to have offered only 2:1 on the ZX-10R pics issue. Fair odds would have been more like perhaps 8:1, or at least that was my opinion. So I would have been very reluctant, under this rule, to suggest 2:1, because it could be turned around on me and I could be out $100 on something that had only a dim chance of getting me the $200 back. Self-interest would require me to offer the good payoff. But lacking such a rule, why should I have? Without such a rule, financial motivation is to offer odds that are the least good that I think the other party is still likely to accept.
In the absence of such a rule, if one person really does have a sounder basis than the other, then the odds can wind up really shafting the guy that's wrong but nonetheless confident or even certain that he's right.
So Gunner, if you had to state the odds and be willing to take second-choice on the side you have to take, what would your odds be? 
  
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Connman
Zone Head
Posts: 506
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posted September 08, 2005 05:06 PM
Tre, Bro, you lost me on that one, I have no idea what you just said.
What odds would we give that a 1400 will be produced?
Oh, I was thinking The " X-14 " would be a cool name, sorta stealthy, like a jet. But isn't that drain cleaner or something? Maybe it's not so cool.
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 07:04 PM
No... rather it was, if someone wants to reinforce his insistence by offering a bet, a way to establish definitely fair odds is for him to be the one to name the odds, with the other guy getting his choice of which side to pick.
Say, someone posts, "You are an asswipe, it's going to be a 1300, moron."
And you decide to reply not only that it's a 1400, but is this dufus up for a bet, since he's so confident.
What I'm saying is, a fair way to do the odds would be for the guy making the challenge to bet, to name the odds and then the other guy can pick either side.
Sort of like, one guy cuts the steak in two, the other gets to pick which half he wants, that way you get a fair cut.
So if you try being a superconfident blowhard and say "100 to 1 it's a 1400" then while that's high-sounding rhetoric and will impress everyone (maybe) with your confidence, the danger is the other guy will take the 1300 side and you face risking $100 to win only $1 in case it does turn out a 1400. (Assuming the bet is $100.)
Or if you try screwing the guy by offering only 1:1 even though you know you have very strong facts on your side, the danger is the other guy will take the 1400 side and almost definitely steals your $100.
So you gotta offer odds that are fair, at least by your best estimation. If you either overplay your confidence by boasting it's long odds, or try to screw the guy with shitty payoff, you get screwed!
That was the idea.
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gunner
Needs a life
Posts: 5778
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posted September 08, 2005 07:40 PM
Bill, I wasn't making a bet against you. My money is on the 1400. I'm comfident in my sources. 20 plus years of friendship and one of the largest Kawasaki dealers in the U.S.
That's good enought for me.
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There's no such thing as a motor with no more power to give only people with no more intelligence to get it
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 08:00 PM
Edited By: trenace on 8 Sep 2005 21:01
I know you weren't... I was discussing in principle. Actually I have no expectation one way or the other.
I was just saying for the most fair bet IF one were going to bet, it would be fairest for the guy making the challenge to name the odds and then be willing to take either side. There's almost certainly got to be SOME odds at which, for example, you'd take the 1300 side because the payoff was just so juicy. Or if not, cap it at 100:1 or something.
BTW, I learned against offering long odds when I bet my father 40:1 on Ali beating Spinks (based fairly rationally, actually, on Ali's won-loss record vs Spink's amateurism.) Forty bucks down the drain, risked against a measly dollar! LOL!
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herk
Expert Class
Posts: 177
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posted September 08, 2005 09:22 PM
quote:
How much money are we talking here??????? I'm game for some
HMMM $20 in OUTBACK STEAKHOUSE certificates
Trenace was going to make this wayyyyyyy to complicated for my dumb ass 
But I think the odds may be in your favor, since it was the dealer vs. what the factory rep may have been blowing up my ass
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Revenge is the oldest motivation known to man
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gunner
Needs a life
Posts: 5778
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posted September 08, 2005 09:26 PM
If we're strickly betting CCs you're on. I say 1400 and you say 1300 right? I don't know what the badging will be.
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There's no such thing as a motor with no more power to give only people with no more intelligence to get it
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 08, 2005 09:56 PM
What, me make something complicated??? No clue what you're talking about...
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blubyu
Expert Class
Posts: 209
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posted September 09, 2005 04:18 AM
Conman, I like the X-14 too...X-14 was the first aircraft to break the speed barrier correct? If so, then the Kawasaki X14 will be the first production motorcycle to break 200 mph (not at any special testing ground either) of course after you remove the easily accessible 186 speed limiter they installed.!!!! I like it.
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Run whatcha brung
Tow whatcha blow
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deathpulse
Pro
Posts: 1688
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posted September 09, 2005 11:09 AM
Actually, it was the Bell X-1 that is commonly acknowledged as the first piloted aircraft to "break the sound barrier" (remember that TONS of manmade objects including bullets, the V-2 rockets etc were known to travel faster than the speed of sound, it was just that this was the first "manned" aircraft). The X-1 was piloted by none other than Chuck Yeager himself - and it was one of the many aviation things that made Chuck so famous. There are also other famous "X" series aircraft (the X-15 rocket plane etc) that you probably heard about. The X series planes delinate "experimental planes. There is actually an "X-14" as well - it was not a high performance testbead, rather it was a VTOL (Vertical TakeOff and Landing - like the Harrier) plane... here is some interesting info on it:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/x-14.htm
Now then - should I sell my 00 A1 and prep for a new 14 or what? Where are the damn pix of this thing? Come ON guys - its September already!!!!
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Zammy
Expert Class
Posts: 411
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posted September 09, 2005 03:17 PM
NEXT WEEKEND ,Guys !!! Anyone else notice Extremelymean shuts the hell up this close to the dealer shows ?
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