CrotchRocket
Moderator
Bracket Racing with Betsy
Posts: 8038
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posted August 24, 2005 05:26 PM
Whats up with that???
There seems to be a trend going on lately...
The price of oil drops by a few dollars during a day of trading...Because of that, trading is up for all other stocks!!!
Then by the end of the day the price of oil shoots back up close to the days starting price!!!
So, now stock investers are making $$$...Investers in oil are making $$$...Here you have it people, the high price of oil is here to stay...They figured out a way for everyone to make $$$ with the high price of oil...
Were screwed!!!
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Jason Miller StreetBike Seminars
*****DragRacers do it better, because they dont cut Corners*****
   
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted August 24, 2005 05:32 PM
 Edited By: trenace on 24 Aug 2005 18:35
Actually, an equal number of people lose money from the churning. (Or more precisely, an equal number of dollars is lost as gained.)
Anyhow, if you're convinced this phenomenon is correct and repeatable, then you have the same opportunity as anyone to multiply your money with it... the stock market is open to you as well!
If you can make 1% per day playing off of this differential that you say is predicatable, that works out to 37 times your money in one year! If you're sure or even reasonably confident, go for it!
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CrotchRocket
Moderator
Bracket Racing with Betsy
Posts: 8038
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posted August 25, 2005 05:06 AM
Tren...My reason for posting this was'nt about making money...It's how they found a way to balance out the difference / losses because of the high cost of oil...Meaning, the high cost of oil is here to stay!!!
You see if they were unable to balance the difference out, then the people involved would have complained to the influential people they know and I guarantee you that something would have been done because of the $$$ being lost in the stock market!!!
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Jason Miller StreetBike Seminars
*****DragRacers do it better, because they dont cut Corners*****
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fish_antlers
Administrator
The Truth is Out There
Posts: 21895
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posted August 25, 2005 06:56 AM
blame the Canadians 
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted August 25, 2005 08:49 AM
Well, CR, if your theory is right, you ought to follow it. I sure know that if I genuinely believed that a differential existed where I could multiply my money by 37 times in one year, I'd go for it.
The thing is, there are countless other investors that would do the same, if that were the best estimation that your theory is so.
Accordingly, they'd be buying oil in the commodities market in the morning when, by your theory, prices are consistently lower, and sell in the evening, when by your theory prices are higher.
And they'd be buying stocks in the evening, when your theory has them cheaper, and selling them in the morning, when your theory has them higher.
Of course this increased buying demand at those times, and increased volume of shares or commodites available for sale at the opposite times, would drive the market the other way.
And so if knowledgeable investors (and most of the money in the markets is guided by those who are knowledgeable) agreed with your theory, the phenomenon would disappear rapidly.
(That, by the way, is why general schemes like this never have worked.)
So that's my first reason for suspecting your theory is not right. If it were, people would jump on it but doing so would cause it to disappear.
However, if you nonetheless believe in it, it's hard to believe you're turning down an opportunity to multiply your money 37 times in one year if there's even a 1% differential that actually exists, and it sounds to me like you believe there is more than that, I tend not to believe you'd have picked up on an apparent difference smaller than that.
Borrow $10,000 on a credit card... have $370,000 one year later! If you really believe what you're saying!
Second aspect is, even if your theory were right, there's a total dissassociation between the parties involved. Those making money on any alleged consistent price differential between morning and evening are NOT the individuals who control the decisions of how much to pump per day from existing wells, are NOT the individuals who control the decisions on how much to invest in new production, are NOT the individuals who control the decisions of how much oil and gasoline to purchase... in short are NOT the ones who affect the ongoing price of gas and oil!
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zxfingyz
Expert Class
Posts: 424
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posted August 25, 2005 11:27 AM
How can you be so sure of that? Your tone is one of confidence, but your market knowledge is suspect.
I don't agree so much with CR but I disagree even more with your take on it.
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osti33
Needs a job
Posts: 2973
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posted August 25, 2005 12:36 PM
quote:
blame the Canadians
lol. Good idea.
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CrotchRocket
Moderator
Bracket Racing with Betsy
Posts: 8038
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posted August 25, 2005 03:42 PM
I am just stating what I have been seeing going on in the market...There are never guarantees as to which way the markets go...I know that Tren!!!
I blame the people with small economy cars, since they blame people like me with the 10mpg vans...
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Jason Miller StreetBike Seminars
*****DragRacers do it better, because they dont cut Corners*****
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zxfingyz
Expert Class
Posts: 424
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posted September 01, 2005 11:23 AM
say hello to some expensive gasoline!
How high can it go?
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trenace
Needs a job
Posts: 3056
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posted September 01, 2005 11:28 AM
I would be very surprised if it doesn't reach or exceed $4.50, if it is correct that gasoline production capacity is reduced to only about 2/3 of what it was.
I can pay for the gas but I am making a point of cutting use well back. I think we all have to pull together in this. With only 2/3 as much gas available (if that's correct) then for every person that does not cut back, another person has to cut back to ONE-THIRD to make up for it. We should each strive for reducing to about 2/3 regardless if we can afford the gas or not. There are other people that need the gas, simply have no other way to get to work or whatever, so now is not the time to use a lot of it needlessly.
This may very well, for weeks or months, be a worse crunch than the Arab Oil Embargo.
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CrotchRocket
Moderator
Bracket Racing with Betsy
Posts: 8038
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posted September 01, 2005 04:56 PM
Everyone will cut back to save themselves $$$ on the cost of filling up!!!...I already did, only using my van on the weekend to run errans and staying local as possible...
I guess the dealers of scooters, enduros, small motorcycles will be raising their prices as people will start buying these 2 wheelers even more!!!
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Jason Miller StreetBike Seminars
*****DragRacers do it better, because they dont cut Corners*****
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jeroen
Expert Class
Posts: 144
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posted September 01, 2005 11:07 PM
quote:
say hello to some expensive gasoline!
How high can it go?
We pay more than $6 for a gallon... But that's mainly taxes 
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Jeroen - BMW R850R
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